ultimatum and compromise

Democrats are threatening to use reconciliation to amend and pass healthcare reform if Republicans do not play ball at the upcoming "bipartisan summit."  I will explain why this is a bluff.

Quite simply, any inputs from Republicans will be seen by Dems as "worsening" the bill.  Democrats don't actually want anything Republicans might add to the legislation.

This leaves the Democrats with two choices: Pass the existing legislation using reconciliation, or pass even worse legislation that may ultimately require reconciliation as well.  Given those two options, why would Democrats work with Republicans?

The answer is: Because the bill doesn't have enough Democrat votes to pass via reconciliation.  If it did, they would have already passed it.  By introducing Republican ideas, Dems hope to either hope to win some Republican votes, or to convince some Democrat holdouts that only reconciliation will pass the bill.

Without Republicans, reconciliation is just too high a hurdle for the House.  The original House bill, in November, was passed with 220 votes -- all the liberals, around 15 "Blue Dogs," and one Republican.  Over 35 Blue Dogs voted against it.  Since then, Murtha and Wexler are gone, and Cao (the Republican) is unlikely to vote for it again.

Meanwhile, the bill has gotten significantly more unpopular, abortion restrictions have been gutted, and the tax provisions have changed.  Furthermore, Republicans are climbing on the generic ballot and Scott Brown has taken Ted Kennedy's bluest seat in the Senate.

With a sense in red and purple states that Democrats are trying to ram their healthcare reform through, Pelosi probably does not have all of her original Blue Dogs.  Getting back to 218 votes is already an uphill battle.  She probably can't get 218 votes in favor of the bill, and she certainly doesn't have that many now.

Besides, if the Dems could pass it without making Republican concessions, they would.  Democrats don't have the votes in the House for reconciliation, and I think Republicans recognize this.

Comments

[Mitch Baker]

I completely agree. However, I wonder how much of this kabuki dance is just to set up the narrative for November. Let's say (God forbid) the dems manage to pass something. While the reps are running against it, the dems will say "we tried our best - the status quo was untenable, and the reps didn't offer anything." I don't think that will hold much water, but it is better than having to say your plan from the get-go was to ram it through. If (God willing) nothing passes, they'll actually have a pretty decent campaign pitch that the status quo is terrible and it is the reps' fault, either because the reps shut down all of the great things the dems wanted or because the reps purposely held back their ideas for electoral gains.

From that standpoint, this summit looks like a good play for the dems.

[Hank Rearden]

This is so pathetic it's comical...the liberal dems are all whining about bipartisanship when it comes to this healthcare bill. I don't know why they're complaining. I see plenty of bipartisanship when it comes to healthcare reform. Too bad for the liberals it just happens to be working AGAINST them.